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On the Threshold: Environmental Changes as Causes of Acute Conflict

Author(s): Homer-Dixon TF

Published: September, 1991

Publisher: International Security

DOI: 10.2307/2539061

Tags: Security

URL: http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/2539061?uid=3738032&uid=2&uid=4&sid=56138913373

Abstract: A number of scholars have recently asserted that large-scale human-induced environmental pressures may seriously affect national and international security. Unfortunately, the environment-security theme encompasses an almost unmanageable array of sub-issues, especially if we define "security" broadly to include human physical, social, and economic well-being. We can narrow the scope of this research problem by focusing on how environmental change affects conflict, rather than security, but still the topic is too vast. Environmental change may contribute to conflicts as diverse as war, terrorism, or diplomatic and trade disputes. Furthermore, it may have different causal roles: in some cases, it may be a proximate and powerful cause; in others, it may only be a minor and distant player in a tangled story that involves many political, economic, and physical factors. In this article, I accept the premise that environmental change may play a variety of roles as a cause of conflict, but I bound my analysis by focusing on acute national and international conflict, which I define as conflict involving a substantial probability of violence.


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