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Mitigation of short-lived heating components may lead to unwanted long-term consequences

Author(s): Myhre G, Fuglestvedt JS, Berntsen T, Lund M

Published: August, 2011

Publisher: Atmospheric Environment

DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.08.009

Tags: Moral Hazard, Air Pollution

URL: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AtmEn..45.6103M

Abstract: A mitigation strategy for reducing emissions of short-lived heating components such as black carbon (BC) aerosols and ozone precursors to limit global warming has frequently been suggested (Bond, 2007; Grieshop et al., 2009; Hansen et al., 2000; Jacobson, 2002; Molina et al., 2009; Nature Editorial, 2009). BC emissions influence the radiative balance in several ways through direct and semi-direct aerosol effects, as well as by impacting the surface albedo (Forster et al., 2007), and their net effect is likely a warming that enhances the total man-made warming. However, the role that BC or other short-lived heating components may play in future mitigation strategies must be formulated with caution to avoid unforeseen and unwanted consequences. A near-term mitigation of short-lived heating components could lead to a delayed action on CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases and thus an increased long-term warming. A key element is whether policies are designed as a consequence of predicted warming or observed warming. Without a clear strategy, early BC or ozone reductions may even lead to an unexpectedly larger temperature change.


Uncertainties in radiative forcing due to surface albedo changes caused by land-use changes

Author(s): Myhre G, Myhre A

Published: May, 2003

Publisher: Journal of Climate

Tags: Surface Albedo Modification, Land Use Management

URL: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442%282003%29016%3C1511%3AUIRFDT%3E2.0.CO%3B2

Abstract: A radiative transfer model has been used for estimating the radiative forcing due to land-use changes. Five global datasets for current vegetation cover and three datasets of preagriculture vegetation have been adopted. The vegetation datasets have been combined with three datasets for surface albedo values. A distinct feature in all the calculations is the negative radiative forcing at the northern midlatitudes due to the conversion of forest to cropland. Regionally the radiative forcing is likely to be among the strongest of the climate forcing mechanisms. A wider range is estimated for the global mean radiative forcing due to land-use changes than previously reported. The single most important factor yielding the large range in estimated forcing is the cropland surface albedo values. This underlines the importance of characterizing surface albedo correctly.


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