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The Politics of Uncertainty and the Fate of Forecasters

Author(s): Taddei R

Published: July, 2012

Publisher: Ethics, Policy & Environment

DOI: 10.1080/21550085.2012.685603

Tags: Uncertainty, Politics

URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/21550085.2012.685603

Abstract: Using ethnographic data from rural Northeast Brazil, this article explores, firstly, how climate uncertainties are interconnected to processes of accountability and blame, and, secondly, how this connection affects the activity of climate forecasting. By framing climate events in ways that downplay the inherent uncertainties of the atmosphere, political discourses on various scales, as well as religious narratives, create a propitious context for the enactment of what I call accountability rituals. Forecasters seem to attract to themselves a great deal of the collective anxieties related to climate, and are very often blamed for the negative impact of climate events. This blaming may take place in a variety of ways, and has a range of practical results: from real physical violence to attacks on the authority and legitimacy of forecasters, by way of ridicule and jokes. I conclude by suggesting that, on the one hand, the study of the social uses of climate-related uncertainties offers special opportunities for understanding how human societies deal with uncertainty and blame; and that, on the other hand, a better understanding of these issues is necessary to improve relations between climate forecasting and the societies where it takes place – the latter being a key issue in the processes of understanding and adapting to climate change.


Unintended Hazards of Geoengineering

Author(s): Saunders P

Published: July, 2012

Publisher: Institute of Science in Society

Tags: Environmental Side-Effects, Research

URL: http://www.i-sis.org.uk/Unintended_Hazards_of_Geoengineering.php

Abstract: Harvard geoengineers are set to spray sun-reflecting chemical particles into the atmosphere to cool the planet from a balloon at 80 000 feet over Fort Sumner, New Mexico. Chief investigator David Keith manages a multimillion dollar research fund awarded by Microsoft founder Bill Gates, and has already commissioned a study by a US aerospace company that made the case for large-scale deployment of solar radiation management technologies. The experiment, to be conducted with James Anderson within a year, will release tens to hundreds of kilograms of particles to measure the impacts on ozone chemistry and test ways of making sulphate aerosols the appropriate size.

Many scientists are opposed to geoengineering experiments, preferring to study the impacts of sulphuric dust emitted by volcanoes, and to use modelling to identify the risks. A British field test involving a balloon and hose-pipe to pump water into the sky, which was part of the government-funded Stratospheric Particle Injection for Climate Engineering (Spice) project was cancelled after public outcry.

But there are good reasons why geoengineering should not be considered.


Deep carbon export from a Southern Ocean iron-fertilized diatom bloom

Author(s): Smetacek V, Klaas C, Strass VH, Assmy P, Montresor M, Cisewski B, Savoye N, Webb A, d’Ovidio F, Arrieta JM, Bathmann U, Bellerby R, Mine Berg G, Croot P, Gonzalez S, Henjes J, Herndl GJ, Hoffmann LJ, Leach H, Losch M, Mills MM, Neill C, Peeken I, Röttgers R, Sachs O, Sauter E, Schmidt MM, Schwarz J, Terbrüggen A, Wolf-Gladrow D

Published: July, 2012

Publisher: Nature

DOI: 10.1038/nature11229

Tags: Ocean Fertilization

URL: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v487/n7407/full/nature11229.html?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20120719

Abstract: Fertilization of the ocean by adding iron compounds has induced diatom-dominated phytoplankton blooms accompanied by considerable carbon dioxide drawdown in the ocean surface layer. However, because the fate of bloom biomass could not be adequately resolved in these experiments, the timescales of carbon sequestration from the atmosphere are uncertain. Here we report the results of a five-week experiment carried out in the closed core of a vertically coherent, mesoscale eddy of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, during which we tracked sinking particles from the surface to the deep-sea floor. A large diatom bloom peaked in the fourth week after fertilization. This was followed by mass mortality of several diatom species that formed rapidly sinking, mucilaginous aggregates of entangled cells and chains. Taken together, multiple lines of evidence—although each with important uncertainties—lead us to conclude that at least half the bloom biomass sank far below a depth of 1,000 metres and that a substantial portion is likely to have reached the sea floor. Thus, iron-fertilized diatom blooms may sequester carbon for timescales of centuries in ocean bottom water and for longer in the sediments.


The potential of enhanced weathering in the UK

Author(s): Renforth P

Published: July, 2012

Publisher: International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijggc.2012.06.011

Tags: Enhanced Weathering

URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1750583612001466

Abstract: Enhanced weathering is the process by which carbon dioxide is sequestered from the atmosphere through the dissolution of silicate minerals on the land surface. The carbon capture potential of enhanced weathering is large, yet there are few data on the effectiveness or engineering feasibility of such a scheme. Here, an energy/carbon balance is presented together with the associated operational costs for the United Kingdom as a case study. The silicate resources are large and could theoretically capture 430 billion tonnes (Gt) of CO2. The majority of this resource is contained in basic rocks (with a carbon capture potential of -0.3 tCO2 t-1 rock) There are a limited number of ultrabasic formations (0.8 tCO2 t-1 rock)with a total carbon capture potential of 25.4 GtCO2. It is shown that the energy costs of enhanced weathering may be 656–3501 kWh tCO2−1 (net CO2 draw-down, which accounts for emissions during production) for basic rocks and 224–748 kWh tCO2−1 for ultrabasic rocks. Comminution and material transport are the most energy intensive processes accounting for 77–94% of the energy requirements collectively. The operational costs of enhanced weathering could be £44–361 tCO2−1 ($70–578 tCO2−1) and £15–77 tCO2−1 ($24–123 tCO2−1) for basic and ultrabasic rocks respectively. Providing sufficient weathering rates full exploitation of this resource is not possible given the environmental and amenity value of some of the rock formations. Furthermore, the weathering rate and environmental impact of silicate mineral application to the land surface is not fully understood, and further investigation in this area is required to reduce the uncertainty in the estimated costs presented here.


Role of Amine Structure on Carbon Dioxide Adsorption from Ultradilute Gas Streams such as Ambient Air

Author(s): Didas SA, Kulkarni AR, Sholl DS, Jones CW

Published: July, 2012

Publisher: ChemSusChem

DOI: 10.1002/cssc.201200196

Tags: Air Capture

URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/cssc.201200196/abstract

Abstract: A fundamental study on the adsorption properties of primary, secondary, and tertiary amine materials is used to evaluate what amine type(s) are best suited for ultradilute CO2 capture applications. A series of comparable materials comprised of primary, secondary, or tertiary amines ligated to a mesoporous silica support via a propyl linker are used to systematically assess the role of amine type. Both CO2 and water adsorption isotherms are presented for these materials in the range relevant to CO2 capture from ambient air and it is demonstrated that primary amines are the best candidates for CO2 capture from air. Primary amines possess both the highest amine efficiency for CO2 adsorption as well as enhanced water affinity compared to other amine types or the bare silica support. The results suggest that the rational design of amine adsorbents for the extraction of CO2 from ambient air should focus on adsorbents rich in primary amines.


Perceptions of geoengineering: public attitudes, stakeholder perspectives, and the challenge of ‘upstream’ engagement

Author(s): Corner A, Parkhill K, Pidgeon N

Published: June, 2012

Publisher: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change

DOI: 10.1002/wcc.176

Tags: Public Perception

URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.176/abstract

Abstract: Geoengineering—the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change—is receiving an increasing amount of attention from academics, policy and civil society stakeholders, and members of the general public. This article reviews the available literature on perceptions of geoengineering, including public attitudes and stakeholder perspectives. We describe some of the challenges of engaging with these audiences at such an ‘upstream’ phase in the development of geoengineering technologies. We conclude with reflections on the importance of eliciting public and stakeholder views, despite the challenges associated with upstream engagement, and identify a number of key research priorities for those involved in upstream engagement on geoengineering.


Climate: More ways to govern geoengineering

Author(s): Long JCS, Hamburg S, Shepherd JG

Published: June, 2012

Publisher: Nature Correspondence

DOI: 10.1038/486323a

Tags: Governance, Research

URL: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v486/n7403/full/486323a.html

Abstract: You call for stronger governance of climate-mitigation strategies that reflect the Sun's energy away from Earth (Nature 485, 415; 2012). We see the scientists' cancellation of a controversial field trial for the UK Stratospheric Particle Injection for Climate Engineering (SPICE) project (Nature 485, 429; 2012) as responsible self-governance in the absence…


Researchers can't regulate climate engineering alone

Author(s): Blackstock JJ

Published: June, 2012

Publisher: Nature

DOI: 10.1038/486159a

Tags: Governance, Research, Politics

URL: http://www.nature.com/news/researchers-can-t-regulate-climate-engineering-alone-1.10818

Abstract: Political interests, not scientists or inventors, will be the biggest influence on technologies to counter climate change, says Jason Blackstock


More maple leaf, less CO2: Canada and a global geo-engineering regime

Author(s): Chalecki EL, Ferrari LL

Published: June, 2012

Publisher: Canadian Foreign Policy Journal

DOI: 10.1080/11926422.2012.674385

Tags: Security, Politics, Policy

URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/11926422.2012.674385

Abstract: While US-led unipolarity may still be the guiding frame for post-Cold War international economic, political, and military relations, we argue that its applicability to global science and environmental issues is waning. We begin by discussing the global problem of anthropogenic climate change, and the technologies involved in geo-engineering as one possible response. We then recognize both the abundance of oil in Alberta and the near-term melting of the Arctic as critical inputs into Canadian climate change policy. Finally, we examine Canada's abilities and resources as a middle power to act as a foreign policy leader in the formation of a global geo-engineering regime.


Appraising Geoengineering

Author(s): Bellamy R, Chilvers J, Vaughan NE, Lenton TM

Published: June, 2012

Publisher: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Working Paper

Tags: Research, Governance

URL: http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/sites/default/files/twp153.pdf

Abstract: Deliberate large-scale interventions in the Earth’s climate system – known collectively as ‘geoengineering’ – have been proposed in order to moderate anthropogenic climate change. Amidst a backdrop of many ways of framing the supposed normative rationales for or against their use, geoengineering proposals are undergoing serious consideration. To support decision makers in the multitude of governance considerations a growing number of appraisals are being conducted to evaluate their pros and cons. Appraisals of geoengineering are critically reviewed here for the first time using a systematic literature search and screen strategy. Substantial variability between different appraisals’ outputs originates from usually hidden framing effects relating to contextual and methodological choices. Geoengineering has largely been appraised in contextual isolation, ignoring the wider portfolio of options for tackling climate change –spanning mitigation and adaptation – and creating an artificial choice between geoengineering proposals. Most existing methods of appraisal do not adequately respond to the post-normal scientific context in which geoengineering resides and show a strong emphasis on closed and exclusive ‘expert-analytic’ techniques. These and other framing effects invariably focus – or close down – upon particular sets of problem definition, values, assumptions and courses of action. This produces a limited range of decision options which seem preferable given those framing effects that are privileged, and could ultimately contribute to the closing down of governance commitments. Emergent closure around particular geoengineering proposals is identified and argued to be premature given the need for more anticipatory, responsible and reflexive forms of governing what is an ‘upstream’ domain of scientific and technological development.


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